By Doug Davis, March 3, 2009

Many of us would prefer to forget 2008 faster than a Southerner can say "Pass the biscuits." So without belaboring the point any further, I think it would be useful to look at what our industry will be like at the end of 2009 and go out on a limb with some prognostications.

I have the fortunate position of being able to talk with companies and technical communicators from all across America. ProEdit also has more than 47,000 technical communicators listed in our skills database and more than 1,000 clients, so we are awash with résumés, salary information, and other data to draw from. I study this stuff like Warren Buffett tracks stock prices. And from all of this information, I can draw some pretty tangible conclusions.

Without further ado, here's what I see when I look at the tea leaves.

Hot Technologies

The year 2009 will be all about convergence of existing technologies. Over the past few years, research and development budgets at American companies have been trampled on. There aren't a lot of dollars going into inventing things that are radically different and new. However, companies desperately need to create new products to pry loose consumer dollars from their unusually tight fists.

I predict that companies will turn to combining existing, mature technologies to create gadgets that are irresistible. Just look at Apple's iPhone as an example. It's a music player. It's a telephone. It's a PDA. It's a browser. And it's being bought up like ice cream in the Mojave Desert.

So what's next? Add to the "personal everything device" such already established features as being able to turn on the lights in your house, diagnose problems with your car, change channels on your television, and monitor your blood pressure. You get the idea. Packing converging technologies into something that will fit into your pocket will be all the rage in 2009 and beyond.

Also, the near future will see many new medical devices and healthcare technologies. One of the few industries still spending lots of dollars on R&D is the healthcare industry. Entrepreneurs worldwide see the demographics of an aging populace and have invested in trying to edge out competitors through new devices, pharmaceuticals, and elder care products.

Also, "green" will continue to be all the rage in 2009. Companies focusing on bio-fuels, hybrid cars, and energy independence will be in the forefront this year as uncertainty in energy costs looms.

Spending

On the consumer side, I predict that people will come through this economic downturn with a renewed emphasis on being thrifty. The characteristics that once attracted buyers (shiny new stuff) will be replaced with new characteristics (value and longevity). There will be greater emphasis on debt reduction than we've seen during any time in recent history.

On the business side, employers will still be timid when it comes to hiring. First, they will turn to temporary help, and then they will slowly shift toward a few permanent hires. The year 2009 will be a great year to be an independent contractor, but only if your rates are low. It will be hard to convince employers of a high-priced consultant's value, but an entry-level temp technical writer will be a hot commodity–even if they are doing basically the same work. The emphasis will be on preserving budget, not on delivering perfection. Set reasonable rates, and you will work a lot.

Job Market

I am firmly convinced that the job market will begin its rebound in 2009. There is a pent up demand for technical writing services all across the United States. Companies delayed spending on technical writing projects throughout 2008 because they were gun-shy about the economy. This has weeded out the less-fit companies, and the fitter companies have spent the last year becoming leaner, hungrier, and more innovative.

Historically, technical communicators are some of the first people to be laid off when business conditions get tight and are some of the last people to be rehired once business conditions improve. This cycle is exacerbated when technical communicator salary levels get unusually high. We saw this in the late 1990s. When the axe fell, it fell harder than usual. Also, high salaries made offshoring more attractive to American companies, especially in the technology sector, which is the bread and butter of our industry. But as hiring increased in 2004 through 2006, wages did not grow exponentially over previous levels. I predict that in 2009 we won't see the mass exodus of American technical communicator jobs to offshore providers as we did earlier in the decade.

Cycles

The cycle generally goes like this. A company hires a contract technical communicator. After a while it hires a few more contractors. It spends so much on contractors that it decides to hire some of them as full-time employees. Then, it hires some more. Over time, wages increase. Then, its business goes through a downturn. Management, looking for opportunities to cut costs, lets go of the technical communicators. Then, the business goes through an upturn. The cycle starts all over again. My data shows that the cycle usually takes about ten years from start to finish.

From where I'm sitting, the fix to breaking the cycle seems obvious. Employers should always keep a few full-time technical communicators and a large pool of contractors. This enables companies to adjust their spending as business situations dictate without laying off permanent employees.

If you are a technical communicator looking for longevity in a job, it is important to determine where that potential employer is in the cycle. If they are snatching up contractors right and left, it's a good time to jump in. But save lots of money while you are working. Odds are that sometime down the road, you'll be living off your nest egg while looking for another job.

Final Thoughts

When J.P. Morgan was once asked what the stock market would do, he is reported to have replied, "I will tell you exactly what the market will do. It will fluctuate."

The technical communication industry often fluctuates with the market. This actually makes it pretty easy for us to predict trends. If it is down, it will go up. If it is up, it will surely go down.

My fellow technical communicators, it has been down. It will go up. Your job is to take the time to thoughtfully determine which horse you want to be riding when the carousel resumes its spin.

Wishing you peace, health, and prosperity in the New Year!

© Copyright 2010, Doug Davis

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